Technology Predictions for 2003
What´s new and exciting for 2003? The flow of new technology does not let up. Will it ever slow down or will it continue at this pace? Some of the new developments are, in my opinion, way over the top for the average user.
My new GPRS mobile phone comes with a bewildering 102-page manual with 6 supplements varying from 10 to 60 pages!
It can communicate by SMS, MMS, email, chat, WAP, GSM data and GPRS data and surprise, surprise, it can even make plain old-fashioned voice calls. It can connect to other devices using cable, infra-red and Bluetooth. My challenge has been to select the facilities that I will actually use, and to implement them. This leaves about 80% of the phone´s facilities unused.
As additional developments appear, I wonder if this percentage will increase? From whom are the manufacturers identifying the demand? In most cases they are creating it, in an attempt to sell more.
Having looked through the predictions for 2003, I have selected a range of products and technologies that are both new and useful, or are useful enhancements to existing products.
Equipment integration
Many manufacturers are finding more ways for their products to work with each other. In the marine world we have been integrating navigation equipment using NMEA standards for a number of years. In the PC world we have been networking PCs using cable, fibre and now wireless. In 2003 we will see Bluetooth wireless technology take leaps forward and Wi-Fi take off.
In 2002 Bluetooth products hit the mainstream with wireless phones, headsets, PDAs (handheld computers), mice and keyboards. Due to Microsoft´s decision to provide Bluetooth support in Windows XP there are some interesting new products for release this year including wireless printers and hard drives. Ford and Saab use and are implementing more hands free in-car Bluetooth devices such as phones, laptops, emailers and text-to-speech devices. Bluetooth has a limited range of about 10 metres so is ideal for in-office or in-car use.
Wi-Fi wireless networking will hit the headlines in 2003. It is already popular in the USA but has lagged behind Bluetooth in Europe. An office, home or yacht can be setup as a Wi-Fi hub and everyone can work wirelessly within the range. It is fast, secure and has significant range. A Wi-Fi hub is known as a ´hot spot´ and a number of companies are planning to roll them out in Europe. The most publicised one is being installed, by BT in the UK, in the Costa Coffee shops to copy the Californian example. Similar installations are taking place in railway stations and airports. The providers are charging by a prepaid rate of, for example, 30 Euro for 300 minutes airtime plus your cafe latte.
Communications
GPRS (or 2.5G) mobile phones debuted in 2002 and will become more popular in 2003. 3G mobile phone networks will get off the ground in 2003.
Now, following on from my comments at the start of this article, listen to this! Motorola have announced their first 3G handset the A830. It has similar functionality to the current GPRS phone ie. tri-band, SMS, MMS, Bluetooth (of which I only use 20%). However it also supports the US only WCDMA standard, it has a 176x220 4,096 colour display, it has Multicall-so you can be downloading an MP3 file from the Internet and still make calls and it incorporates an integrated MP3 player and GPS!
However, not to be outdone, the Nokia have included a video camera in their 6650 3G model, so you can shoot video footage whilst making a call!! Just think how useful that will be at for example, sports events or the labour ward(!)........
You may think I´m joking, but I´m not.
What is the real advantage of 2.5G and 3G? The whole world seems to have lost track that the enormous fees spent on the 3G licences were to develop and provide faster wireless data services, which will be very beneficial to a yacht to send and receive email and have Internet access.
We have new fixed GPRS (2.5G) equipment, which is available for installation on yachts. The early products were flawed, but these teething problems have now been corrected. The ´´ultimate fixed solution´ which I prematurely announced in December was the Ericsson Tri band with voice, fax and GPRS data. During our first installation we have discovered that voice and fax should be read as voice OR fax, thus we still await the perfect product for the super yacht market. This is a fixed tri band that handles voice, fax and GPRS data and can be connected to a telephone exchange. We currently have a dual band with this specification and a tri band without fax.
The Inmarsat Fleet 55 (F55), the smaller version of the Inmarsat F77 will be available in 2003. It will have the same specification of voice, fax and ISDN (high speed data) and MPDS (packet data) as the F77 with a 55cm dish, thus in a 60cm dome. The F33 has also been launched this year at various shows, including Dusseldorf, but it only provides a 9.6kbps data service, which is very uninteresting, thus a number of manufacturers are not including the F33 in their product range.
Computers
2003 will see the first 64 bit PCs go on sale. Intel and AMD are working on new chips that will put the power of a huge server on your desk. What will we do with this amazing power? I´m sure ´Dear Bill´ will enhance his software even further to drain a good proportion of that power.
Tablet PCs will be big in 2003. You can detach the screen and use it as a notepad and write on it. Many manufacturers, Fujitsu, Toshiba, Acer, Siemens and Viewsonic think that this will revolutionise the way you use a PC. In a similar vein, Microsoft have developed a Smart Display that communicates with the PC by Wi-Fi and can be used anywhere within range. This will be useful for flybridge and wheel locations on yachts to eliminate the need to run cables.
Security
One of the developments to be aware of in 2003 is Iris Recognition. Panasonic have launched an introductory PC webcam version. Industrial versions were being tested in many airports during 2002.
In the future you will log onto your PC by looking at it rather than typing in a password. You will no longer have to remember your passwords and keep changing them. This will apply to all security devices, not just PCs.
Entertainment
There are more developments in this arena than anywhere else, from PDAs (Personal Digital Assistant) TV to Hypersonic directional speakers and from DAB (Digital Audio Broadcasting) radio to surround sound gaming.
The ones I have picked out as interesting and useful are the most obvious, such as the ongoing flat screen TV developments. Prices are falling, plasma screens are getting better and bigger (up to 63Ó now) and LCD screens are fabulous and getting bigger (40Ónow). There will be tough competition, around the 40Ó market, between the two technologies this year.
Liquid Crystal on Silicon (LCOS) TV is a projection technology that will be seen in 2003 for the top end TV market. It can be incorporated into giant screens that are slimmer and brighter than conventional rear projection TVs. They will offer fantastic picture resolution and are much lighter.
We should see some new Universal Remote Controls this year that are cheaper, easier to use and more powerful than those currently available.
We also hope they will be easier and less time consuming to programme.
All for one and one for all
There is one new device launched in 2002 that has been developed to be everything to all men. This is the PDA. The PDA is best known as a handheld computer but actually stands for Personal Digital Assistant. The same PDA, such as the latest Compaq iPaq, can be used to perform everything I have written about in this article.
It can be used as a Universal Remote, as a computer running Word and Excel, as a chart plotter running Transas Tsunamis with an attached GPS, as a communications device to surf the Internet and email using a 2.5G GPRS phone, it can be used to play MP3 music, to view your digital photos and now to watch the TV. All this and it measures 15cm x 8cm - small is beautiful!
So, after this, not so brief, summary, what do you think? Does all this new technology really serve to enhance our modern lifestyle, or are you, like me, paying for a whole range of functions you´ll never use?
For further information contact: Roger Horner, Jason Abbott or Erik Nieuwmeijer at E3 Systems. Tel: +34 971 404208/400738 Fax: +34 971 404431 em: roger@e3s.com web: www.e3s.com